Climate change impacts on WCPO Tuna

Enhanced estimates of climate change impacts on WCPO tuna, including estimates of uncertainty and ocean acidification

The project will undertake analyses of four tuna species (skipjack, bigeye, yellowfin, albacore) to characterize the uncertainty in the predictions to alternative population dynamics model structures, parameter uncertainty and plausible climate change scenarios.  The first experimental results on the impact  of ocean acidfication on yellowfin tuna  larvae will be incorporated into SEAPODYM.

wcpo tuna

Envelope of predictions of total yellowfin biomass in WCPO computed from an ensemble simulation composed of 20 runs, including ocean acidification impact. The ranges by model forcing for the last 10 years (2090-2100) are shown with the colour bars at the end of the time series (From Lehodey et al. 2017).

REFERENCES

Johnson JE, Bell JD, Allain V., Hanich Q., Lehodey P., Moore BR, Nicol S., Pickering T., Senina I. (in press). Chapter 11: The Pacific Islands: Fisheries, Aquaculture and Climate Change. In « The Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture » (Ed. B. F. Phillips and M. Pérez-Ramírez).
Lehodey P., Senina I., Calmettes B., Dessert M., Nicol S., Hampton J., Smith N., Gorgues T., Aumont O., Lengaigne M., Menkes C., Gehlen M. (2017). Modelling the impact of climate change including ocean acidification on Pacific yellowfin tuna. 13th Scientific Committee of the western Central Pacific Fisheries Commission, Rarotonga, Cook Islands, 9-17 August 2017. Working Paper WCPFC-SC13-2017/EB-WP-01, 26 pp.